Football season has finally returned. Nebraska begins its fourth season under head coach Scott Frost on Saturday at Illinois. Somebody’s getting a 1-0 jump to the season in Week 0. Who’s it going to be? Let’s take a closer look at how the Huskers and Illini compare.
How the Huskers light up the scoreboard
1. Get to the point(s): For the most part, Nebraska’s issues offensively have come less in regards to moving the ball and more in the business of converting those yards to points. Moving the ball between the 20-yard lines is great. Punching it in makes all the difference.
2. Ground operation: There’s been a lot of talk about what NU’s approach to the run game will be this fall. The bottom line is the Huskers need more production from the running backs and more consistency overall, despite good numbers the past couple of years.
3. Harvest the downfield: In eight games last year, NU had just 18 completions of 20 or more yards. Its only touchdown pass of longer than 15 was a fly sweep to Zavier Betts. That simply has to change.
4. Snot funny: Illinois’ defense hasn’t been particularly good in recent years, but it’s a physical group. Frost said the Illini have “knocked the snot out of” NU in the past couple of matchups. The snot can get knocked out, but the ball had better not.
How the Blackshirts shut ’em down
1. Early work: Nebraska was one of the worst third-down defenses in the country for four games in 2020 and then one of the best for the final four games. The difference? NU played better on first and second downs, forcing more third-and-longs.
2. Mind your explosives: Remember 2019? UI running back Reggie Corbin ripped off a 66-yard touchdown run on the second play of the game. Six minutes later, a 26-yard touchdown pass put the Illini up 14-0. Everybody gives up chunk plays at some point, but if NU limits them against Illinois, the defense will be in good shape.
3. Slow change: This involves a little help from the offense and special teams. Last year, the Blackshirts were too often put in quick-change scenarios after turnovers or bad special teams plays. Like, for example, NU’s turnover on the first play against Illinois. That puts any team in a bind … quickly.
4. Cam Class: Cam Taylor-Britt said he jokingly tells defensive backs who drop interceptions in practice that they haven’t been attending “Cam Class.” No joking matter on Saturdays, though. If Brandon Peters makes a mistake, NU must capitalize.
Three numbers to know
Minus-8: You probably already know this one, but it’s worth repeating. The Huskers are minus-8 in turnover differential against Illinois the past two years.
285: Illinois’ rushing total last year against Nebraska. Over the past two, UI is averaging 321 yards against the Huskers. In 2020, NU allowed 153 per game in its other seven.
395.5: NU quarterback Adrian Martinez’s average offensive production against Illinois in 2018 (345 total yards and four touchdowns) and 2019 (446 and three TDs). He didn’t start against UI last year but led a late touchdown drive in relief of Luke McCaffrey.
Under the radar
Matt Sichterman
RG | No. 70| Jr.: The veteran fifth-year player has appeared in 24 games in his career, including every contest the past two years. He’s never started one. That may well change on Saturday. Sichterman doesn’t draw much attention, but he’s stayed the course and now is likely NU’s No. 1 right guard. The scouting report from his teammates is that he’s strong, crafty and athletic.
Chris Kolarevic
ILB | No. 31 | Jr.: Nebraska named 12 Blackshirts earlier this week and it’s perhaps not surprising that Kolarevic, the junior transfer from Northern Iowa, wasn’t one of them. After all, he’s not yet appeared in a game for the Huskers. That’ll change Saturday, though, and the 6-foot-1, 230-pounder is expected to play a lot in a rotation with Luke Reimer and Nick Henrich.
Marquee matchup
Illinois linebacker Jake Hansen vs. Nebraska center Cam Jurgens
OK, this isn’t exactly a one-on-one matchup, but the two will see plenty of each other over the course of the game. Hansen is one of the best linebackers in the Big Ten and is back for a sixth season. He’ll be in the middle of everything as Illinois takes Bret Bielema and Ryan Walters’ defensive system to the field for the first time. Jurgens will be at the controls in the middle of Nebraska’s offensive line. How quickly will they figure each other out?
Biggest mismatch
The amount of film each side has to watch of each other
Nebraska’s coaches have used terms like “best guess” and “ready for anything” this week, and with good reason. Bielema has been out of the college game for the past three years, but he’s brought in a pair of new coordinators who each have their own styles and will also blend with his.
NU, meanwhile, has plenty of tape piled up of what it wants to do offensively and defensively. Now, there will certainly be wrinkles both ways, but the film study was likely a little smoother for Illinois’ coaching staff this week than for Nebraska’s.
Prediction
Nebraska 30, Illinois 24
A season-opening, Week 0, division game on which it feels like a substantial amount rides for the Huskers? That’s a compelling way to kick things off in 2021. What to actually make of it from a prognostication standpoint though? That’s a little bit trickier.
Nebraska likes its talent on offense and its veteran defense is capable of hitting the ground running. If the element of surprise works in Illinois’ favor, though, it’s imperative the Huskers settle in quickly. UI has been ready from the jump against Nebraska each of the past two years.
The bet here is that somehow, someway NU finds a way. The record in one-score games under Frost isn’t pretty, so a nail-biter would be unsettling for fans. 1-0, though? The Huskers would take that anyway it happens.
